The March 25, 1996, edition of U.S. News and World Report documents the escalating problem of juvenile crime and describes this issue as a potential "time bomb" for the 21st Century. The issue's articles enumerate a dramatic and exorbitant rate of growth in the level of juvenile violent crime over the course of the prior decade. Nationally, juvenile murder arrests have increased 150 percent since 1985, aggravated assault arrests have grown 97 percent, robbery arrests have expanded 57 percent, and arrests for weapon violations grew 103 percent. Reported drug use among high school seniors began to rise again during the early 1990's.
The authors noted that these increasing trends foreshadow an even greater explosion of juvenile crime which has been projected to hit the nation during the first decade of the 21st Century. Igniting this projected increase is a predicted rise in the sheer number of juveniles with demographers estimating a 31 percent increase in the juvenile population by 2010.
This paper briefly examines the recent history of juvenile violent crime in North Carolina and forecasts near term juvenile crime trends. The actual number of juvenile arrests from 1981 to 1994 are presented in order to see where we have been. Projections derived from these arrest statistics are offered in an attempt to see where we are heading, and to detect the extent to which this predicted national "time bomb" will explode here in North Carolina.
The number of 10 to 15 year olds declined a slight seven percent between 1981 to 1994. However, as Figure 1 reveals state demographer projections indicate, that this population will grow from 537,024 teens in 1994 to 637,777 in 2010 (19%). As depicted this growth has already begun and will steadily increase with the number of 10 to 15 year olds surpassing 600,000 by the year 2000.
Figure 2 graphically displays the actual and projected number of juvenile arrests for all offenses. The number of juveniles arrested in 1994 (19,502) was 94 percent greater than the total number arrested in 1981 (10,040). Juvenile arrests have grown 76 percent since 1985. If current trends and arrest practices continue to the year 2010, an estimated 35,224 juveniles will be arrested during that year. This number represents an 80 percent increase over the total number of 1994 arrests, and a 251 percent increase over the total number of juveniles arrested in 1981.
The number of juveniles arrested for serious violent crime grew from 407 in 1981, to 1,102 in 1994 (171% ). Figure 3 shows that the total number of juveniles who were arrested for the violent crimes of murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault grew at an even greater 175 percent over the past decade. If the current wave of juvenile violence intensifies as the experts predict, law enforcement officials could arrest as many as 2,679 violent juvenile offenders in 2010. That is a 143 percent increase over the number arrested in 1994, and 558 percent more than the number arrested in 1981.
Figures 4 through 7 present the actual and projected number of arrests for each of the four Part I violent offenses as defined in the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Procedure. Murder arrests increased 40 percent, with 10 juveniles being arrested in 1981 and 14 in 1994. Murder arrests grew 180 percent from 1985 to 1994, with an average annual increase of 20 percent during this period. The greatest number of murder arrests occurred in 1993, when 29 juveniles were arrested for this offense.
Juvenile rape arrests expanded 87 percent from 1981 to 1994, with the actual number of arrests jumping from 24 to 45. Rape arrests have grown 28 percent since 1985. The greatest number occurred in 1990 when 50 teens were arrested for this offense. Projections suggest that by the year 2010 the number of rape arrests will grow 64 percent over the number reported in 1994, and 208 percent over the number recorded in 1981.
Robbery arrests have more than doubled since 1981 with the number of juveniles arrested in 1994 (238) being 122 percent greater than the number arrested in 1981 (107). The most significant portion of this increase can be attributed to the past decade in which robbery arrests averaged an annual increase of 29 percent. Adult robbery arrests also grew substantially during the past decade. However, unlike the trend for adults, the juvenile trend has not leveled off or declined in the past three years. Assuming that this upward trend continues it is possible that nearly 500 juvenile robbery arrests will be recorded in 2010. This is 105 percent more than those recorded in 1994, and 355 percent higher than those for 1981.
Aggravated assault arrests expanded 203 percent, climbing from 266 in 1981 to 805 in 1994. Arrests increased 174 percent from 1985 and 1994 and between 1987 to 1994 aggravated assault arrests consistently grew by an average of 20 percent per year. The number of arrests could surpass the 1,000 mark next year, escalate to around 1,725 by 2005, and eventually exceed 2,000 by 2010. If the trend persists this would equate to an average annual growth of 10.5 percent between 1994 and 2000 and an average of 5.5 percent between 2000 and 2010. The number of projected arrests for 2010 will be 157 percent higher than the number in 1994, and 678 percent more than the number in 1981.
Figure 8 presents the actual and projected number of arrests for one of the most common juvenile offenses - simple assault. The number of simple assault arrests in 1994 (2,529) exceeded the number in 1981 (426) by 494 percent. Arrests for this offense grew 257 percent from 1985 and 1994 and expanded an average of 43 percent per year between 1987 to 1994. Based on these arrest statistics an estimated 3,382 juveniles could be arrested for simple assault in the year 2000. Nearly 4,500 arrests could take place by 2005 and approximately 5,400 teens could be arrested in 2010. This would equate to a 113 percent increase over the number arrested in 1994, and an astounding 1,167 percent increase over the number arrested in 1981.
Two frequently proposed explanations for the rapid escalation in juvenile violent crime arrests over the last decade are the rising involvement of teens in the drug trade and the increasing accessibility and availability of firearms within this population. As Figures 9 and 10 reveal the number of juveniles arrested for drug and weapon law violations grew tremendously between 1981 and 1994.
The number of drug arrests in 1994 (657) outpaced the number reported in 1981 (333) by 97 percent. Generally, drug arrests declined from 1981 to 1987, gradually grew between 1988 and 1990, and experienced a massive growth spurt of 129 percent from 1991 to 1994. If this growth rate persists into the next decade, an estimated 775 drug arrests could be recorded in 2000 with the 1,000-arrest mark being exceeded by 2005. By 2010, close to 1,200 juveniles could be arrested for drug law violations, an 81 percent increase over the number arrested in 1994, and 256 percent higher than the number arrested in 1981.
Arrests for weapon law violations grew from 62 in 1981 to 619 in 1994 (898%). Juvenile arrests for this violation swelled 484 percent between 1985 to 1994, with the number of arrests moving upward from 106 to 619. The arrest trend has displayed a strong linear increase since 1987, growing an average of 76 percent per year. Assuming this rate of growth continues, it is possible that approximately 825 teens will be arrested for some form of a weapons violation in the year 2000. Arrests could break the 1,000 mark by 2003 and exceed 1,100 by 2005. Projections indicate that more than 1,300 juveniles could be arrested in 2010. Compared with arrests in previous years this would be a 121 percent increase over the number arrested in 1994, and an exorbitant 2,106 percent increase over the number of 1981 juvenile weapon arrests.
Arrests of juvenile violent offenders on a statewide basis have increased significantly since 1981, with a large percentage of this growth occurring within the last five to seven years. Drug and weapon arrests also grew tremendously during this period and to a large extent drugs and weapons may be the primary influencing factors for the dramatic increase in the severity and prevalence of juvenile violence during this period.
Surprisingly, the total number of kids in the at-risk juvenile offender age group of 10 to 15 was in the midst of declining or "bottoming out" during this period of heightened arrest activity. This population trend is now reversing itself in North Carolina with the number of at-risk juveniles beginning to climb again and projections suggest that this growth will continue at least through the year 2005. Unfortunately, as this population grows the probability of increasing juvenile violence follows with arrests for violent offenses projected to significantly surpass the high numbers recorded in the past five to seven years. If current trends continue, North Carolina will inevitably suffer from the "fallout" of the predicted national explosion of juvenile violence.
Operational, policy, and legislative issues, surrounding this impending wave of juvenile violence, must be addressed and attacked proactively within a system's perspective. System wide discussion and planning are needed to ascertain if current law enforcement, juvenile court, and juvenile detention services are capable of handling a predicted increase of this magnitude. What, if any, changes will need to be incorporated into these agencies' operational procedures, budgets, and facilities in order to better equip them for the future? The possibility of introducing new legislation, or of modifying the existing juvenile code, should be thoroughly debated to contain, or at least properly manage, the predicted explosion of juvenile violence.
As part of this proactive approach to primary prevention and early intervention efforts should be intensified. Existing successful programs should be expanded and new programs that offer innovative and promising techniques should be started. Policies and programs that successfully divert juveniles from the system should be evaluated and, if necessary, modified to handle a larger volume of clients.
These recommendations, as well as others, are more thoroughly outlined in Combating Violence and Delinquency: The National Juvenile Justice Action Plan. This plan explains eight specific objectives, provides an overview of effective practices, and offers suggestions that can be adopted by local communities and applied to their specific juvenile crime problem areas.
U.S. News and World Report. 1996 (March 25).