Projected Population Change in North Carolina Counties: 2020-2030
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  Total Population Population Change Components of Change
County July 2020 Projection July 2030 Projection Numeric Percent Births Deaths Natural Increase Net Migration
Alamance 170,698 188,660 17,962 10.5 21,006 19,904 1,102 16,860
Alexander 38,524 40,286 1,762 4.6 3,939 5,127 -1,188 2,950
Alleghany 11,558 12,302 744 6.4 1,191 1,699 -508 1,252
Anson 23,889 23,277 -612 -2.6 2,272 3,193 -921 309
Ashe 28,020 30,294 2,274 8.1 2,347 4,213 -1,866 4,140
Avery 18,182 18,780 598 3.3 1,450 2,407 -957 1,555
Beaufort 47,400 47,069 -331 -0.7 4,564 7,094 -2,530 2,199
Bertie 19,496 18,496 -1,000 -5.1 1,798 2,569 -771 -229
Bladen 34,421 33,813 -608 -1.8 3,633 4,652 -1,019 411
Brunswick 147,644 180,776 33,132 22.4 11,839 22,910 -11,071 44,203
Buncombe 264,408 283,363 18,955 7.2 24,451 31,192 -6,741 25,696
Burke 91,708 93,787 2,079 2.3 9,683 11,971 -2,288 4,367
Cabarrus 216,841 257,692 40,851 18.8 30,896 20,889 10,007 30,844
Caldwell 84,230 88,161 3,931 4.7 8,967 11,271 -2,304 6,235
Camden 10,575 10,617 42 0.4 1,061 1,123 -62 104
Carteret 71,352 76,159 4,807 6.7 5,823 10,158 -4,335 9,142
Caswell 23,462 23,348 -114 -0.5 2,175 3,234 -1,059 945
Catawba 160,732 172,637 11,905 7.4 18,448 20,402 -1,954 13,859
Chatham 77,061 91,813 14,752 19.1 7,774 10,100 -2,326 17,078
Cherokee 29,610 32,106 2,496 8.4 2,694 4,671 -1,977 4,473
Chowan 14,114 13,767 -347 -2.5 1,421 2,092 -671 324
Clay 11,759 12,870 1,111 9.4 1,054 1,855 -801 1,912
Cleveland 100,814 103,964 3,150 3.1 11,688 14,159 -2,471 5,621
Columbus 56,002 53,476 -2,526 -4.5 5,851 7,464 -1,613 -913
Craven 103,016 102,411 -605 -0.6 13,423 11,394 2,029 -2,634
Cumberland 333,531 334,709 1,178 0.4 46,813 29,886 16,927 -15,749
Currituck 28,048 32,017 3,969 14.2 3,086 3,021 65 3,904
Dare 38,027 41,268 3,241 8.5 3,675 4,582 -907 4,148
Davidson 170,370 182,801 12,431 7.3 19,901 21,630 -1,729 14,160
Davie 43,746 49,255 5,509 12.6 4,675 5,842 -1,167 6,676
Duplin 60,177 61,384 1,207 2.0 7,495 6,305 1,190 17
Durham 321,261 365,859 44,598 13.9 44,406 25,744 18,662 25,936
Edgecombe 52,024 47,855 -4,169 -8.0 5,446 7,143 -1,697 -2,472
Forsyth 380,964 411,256 30,292 8.0 46,294 39,877 6,417 23,875
Franklin 71,196 82,418 11,222 15.8 8,477 8,186 291 10,931
Gaston 224,168 240,069 15,901 7.1 27,092 26,901 191 15,710
Gates 11,908 11,736 -172 -1.4 1,038 1,456 -418 246
Graham 8,642 8,450 -192 -2.2 847 1,194 -347 155
Granville 61,628 68,078 6,450 10.5 6,525 7,023 -498 6,948
Greene 20,951 20,844 -107 -0.5 2,161 2,391 -230 123
Guilford 538,431 583,552 45,121 8.4 63,660 52,990 10,670 34,451
Halifax 50,898 47,093 -3,805 -7.5 5,583 7,004 -1,421 -2,384
Harnett 136,705 154,930 18,225 13.3 19,495 12,620 6,875 11,350
Haywood 63,481 67,931 4,450 7.0 6,386 9,509 -3,123 7,573
Henderson 118,563 133,007 14,444 12.2 12,230 17,554 -5,324 19,768
Hertford 23,720 23,310 -410 -1.7 2,134 3,321 -1,187 777
Hoke 54,682 57,946 3,264 6.0 8,073 4,233 3,840 -576
Hyde 5,119 4,853 -266 -5.2 397 709 -312 46
Iredell 183,309 207,217 23,908 13.0 22,661 20,351 2,310 21,598
Jackson 44,354 48,165 3,811 8.6 4,015 4,936 -921 4,732
Johnston 211,626 264,618 52,992 25.0 31,267 20,833 10,434 42,558
Jones 10,067 10,006 -61 -0.6 950 1,411 -461 400
Lee 61,663 66,893 5,230 8.5 8,499 6,861 1,638 3,592
Lenoir 56,876 55,751 -1,125 -2.0 6,714 7,716 -1,002 -123
Lincoln 88,699 101,026 12,327 13.9 9,743 10,934 -1,191 13,518
Macon 37,014 42,382 5,368 14.5 4,032 5,793 -1,761 7,129
Madison 22,500 23,843 1,343 6.0 2,222 3,067 -845 2,188
Martin 22,904 21,511 -1,393 -6.1 2,579 3,475 -896 -497
McDowell 46,530 47,712 1,182 2.5 4,845 6,160 -1,315 2,497
Mecklenburg 1,118,775 1,329,914 211,139 18.9 152,503 83,585 68,918 142,221
Mitchell 15,112 14,805 -307 -2.0 1,444 2,349 -905 598
Montgomery 27,753 28,006 253 0.9 3,182 3,426 -244 497
Moore 102,814 120,258 17,444 17.0 13,315 14,029 -714 18,158
Nash 96,669 99,926 3,257 3.4 11,585 12,528 -943 4,200
New Hanover 235,231 267,340 32,109 13.6 23,981 24,437 -456 32,565
Northampton 20,054 17,124 -2,930 -14.6 1,907 2,677 -770 -2,160
Onslow 210,056 231,558 21,502 10.2 38,031 14,321 23,710 -2,208
Orange 147,907 162,267 14,360 9.7 12,467 10,900 1,567 12,793
Pamlico 13,277 13,392 115 0.9 948 2,119 -1,171 1,286
Pasquotank 39,952 39,729 -223 -0.6 4,725 4,443 282 -505
Pender 63,949 72,153 8,204 12.8 7,297 7,377 -80 8,284
Perquimans 13,807 14,826 1,019 7.4 1,307 2,148 -841 1,860
Person 40,450 41,560 1,110 2.7 4,637 5,155 -518 1,628
Pitt 183,285 205,556 22,271 12.2 23,063 15,983 7,080 15,191
Polk 21,923 23,544 1,621 7.4 1,746 3,334 -1,588 3,209
Randolph 145,246 152,412 7,166 4.9 17,419 17,678 -259 7,425
Richmond 45,014 43,921 -1,093 -2.4 5,502 5,821 -319 -774
Robeson 131,238 129,627 -1,611 -1.2 16,706 15,136 1,570 -3,181
Rockingham 91,915 91,586 -329 -0.4 9,573 12,531 -2,958 2,629
Rowan 143,274 148,482 5,208 3.6 16,564 18,004 -1,440 6,648
Rutherford 69,049 72,706 3,657 5.3 7,420 9,771 -2,351 6,008
Sampson 64,053 64,058 5 0.0 8,675 7,622 1,053 -1,048
Scotland 35,724 35,389 -335 -0.9 4,554 4,400 154 -489
Stanly 64,691 67,759 3,068 4.7 7,190 8,472 -1,282 4,350
Stokes 46,684 46,804 120 0.3 4,477 6,467 -1,990 2,110
Surry 73,548 74,383 835 1.1 8,351 9,970 -1,619 2,454
Swain 14,489 14,838 349 2.4 1,747 2,039 -292 641
Transylvania 35,511 38,352 2,841 8.0 3,123 5,400 -2,277 5,118
Tyrrell 3,767 3,701 -66 -1.8 372 478 -106 40
Union 238,740 286,899 48,159 20.2 32,658 20,508 12,150 36,009
Vance 45,435 45,431 -4 -0.0 5,820 5,705 115 -119
Wake 1,102,782 1,305,154 202,372 18.4 139,070 78,857 60,213 142,159
Warren 19,767 17,972 -1,795 -9.1 1,718 2,773 -1,055 -740
Washington 12,039 11,194 -845 -7.0 1,405 1,738 -333 -512
Watauga 57,011 63,224 6,213 10.9 4,236 4,461 -225 6,438
Wayne 126,339 130,737 4,398 3.5 16,083 13,840 2,243 2,155
Wilkes 70,263 72,721 2,458 3.5 7,556 9,629 -2,073 4,531
Wilson 83,495 89,175 5,680 6.8 10,223 10,199 24 5,656
Yadkin 38,145 38,070 -75 -0.2 4,191 4,967 -776 701
Yancey 18,909 21,381 2,472 13.1 2,138 2,741 -603 3,075
State 10,587,440 11,677,603 1,090,163 10.3 1,281,773 1,114,416 167,357 922,806
Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2019 and Population Projections, Vintage 2020

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Last updated February 22, 2021