Projected Population Change in North Carolina Counties: 2030-2040
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  Total Population Population Change Components of Change
County July 2030 Projection July 2040 Projection Numeric Percent Births Deaths Natural Increase Net Migration
Alamance 188,660 208,019 19,359 10.3 22,737 24,078 -1,341 20,700
Alexander 40,286 42,211 1,925 4.8 4,063 6,132 -2,069 3,994
Alleghany 12,302 13,087 785 6.4 1,253 1,889 -636 1,421
Anson 23,277 22,786 -491 -2.1 2,088 3,423 -1,335 844
Ashe 30,294 32,673 2,379 7.9 2,555 5,073 -2,518 4,897
Avery 18,780 19,449 669 3.6 1,383 2,796 -1,413 2,082
Beaufort 47,069 46,955 -114 -0.2 4,482 7,956 -3,474 3,360
Bertie 18,496 17,625 -871 -4.7 1,520 2,677 -1,157 286
Bladen 33,813 33,367 -446 -1.3 3,518 4,948 -1,430 984
Brunswick 180,776 213,371 32,595 18.0 13,809 33,081 -19,272 51,867
Buncombe 283,363 303,393 20,030 7.1 25,485 38,079 -12,594 32,624
Burke 93,787 96,431 2,644 2.8 9,554 13,486 -3,932 6,576
Cabarrus 257,692 299,548 41,856 16.2 35,996 27,975 8,021 33,835
Caldwell 88,161 92,212 4,051 4.6 8,902 13,033 -4,131 8,182
Camden 10,617 10,644 27 0.3 938 1,356 -418 445
Carteret 76,159 81,302 5,143 6.8 6,070 12,207 -6,137 11,280
Caswell 23,348 23,349 1 0.0 2,077 3,689 -1,612 1,613
Catawba 172,637 185,203 12,566 7.3 19,684 24,881 -5,197 17,763
Chatham 91,813 106,778 14,965 16.3 9,044 14,197 -5,153 20,118
Cherokee 32,106 34,705 2,599 8.1 2,726 5,640 -2,914 5,513
Chowan 13,767 13,485 -282 -2.0 1,397 2,120 -723 441
Clay 12,870 13,813 943 7.3 1,121 2,242 -1,121 2,064
Cleveland 103,964 104,521 557 0.5 11,530 15,722 -4,192 4,749
Columbus 53,476 51,225 -2,251 -4.2 5,433 7,870 -2,437 186
Craven 102,411 102,396 -15 -0.0 15,176 11,428 3,748 -3,763
Cumberland 334,709 334,831 122 0.0 43,193 34,629 8,564 -8,442
Currituck 32,017 36,092 4,075 12.7 3,298 4,102 -804 4,879
Dare 41,268 42,975 1,707 4.1 3,868 5,796 -1,928 3,635
Davidson 182,801 195,934 13,133 7.2 20,370 25,486 -5,116 18,249
Davie 49,255 54,867 5,612 11.4 4,854 7,381 -2,527 8,139
Duplin 61,384 62,319 935 1.5 7,926 7,011 915 20
Durham 365,859 411,793 45,934 12.6 53,925 33,970 19,955 25,979
Edgecombe 47,855 43,968 -3,887 -8.1 5,127 7,486 -2,359 -1,528
Forsyth 411,256 445,036 33,780 8.2 50,848 48,100 2,748 31,032
Franklin 82,418 93,888 11,470 13.9 9,467 10,879 -1,412 12,882
Gaston 240,069 257,446 17,377 7.2 28,701 31,741 -3,040 20,417
Gates 11,736 11,733 -3 -0.0 854 1,666 -812 809
Graham 8,450 8,416 -34 -0.4 828 1,274 -446 412
Granville 68,078 74,774 6,696 9.8 6,798 9,076 -2,278 8,974
Greene 20,844 20,844 0 0.0 2,197 2,754 -557 557
Guilford 583,552 649,608 66,056 11.3 71,004 65,901 5,103 60,953
Halifax 47,093 43,561 -3,532 -7.5 4,937 7,235 -2,298 -1,234
Harnett 154,930 173,721 18,791 12.1 22,221 15,812 6,409 12,382
Haywood 67,931 72,621 4,690 6.9 6,645 10,941 -4,296 8,986
Henderson 133,007 148,116 15,109 11.4 13,703 21,527 -7,824 22,933
Hertford 23,310 23,300 -10 -0.0 2,164 3,508 -1,344 1,334
Hoke 57,946 61,150 3,204 5.5 9,405 5,325 4,080 -876
Hyde 4,853 4,609 -244 -5.0 410 791 -381 137
Iredell 207,217 231,817 24,600 11.9 24,338 26,172 -1,834 26,434
Jackson 48,165 52,154 3,989 8.3 4,443 5,911 -1,468 5,457
Johnston 264,618 315,026 50,408 19.0 37,625 29,129 8,496 41,912
Jones 10,006 9,986 -20 -0.2 898 1,535 -637 617
Lee 66,893 72,513 5,620 8.4 9,448 7,993 1,455 4,165
Lenoir 55,751 54,901 -850 -1.5 6,659 8,133 -1,474 624
Lincoln 101,026 113,855 12,829 12.7 10,516 14,429 -3,913 16,742
Macon 42,382 47,862 5,480 12.9 4,539 6,973 -2,434 7,914
Madison 23,843 25,276 1,433 6.0 2,266 3,698 -1,432 2,865
Martin 21,511 20,230 -1,281 -6.0 2,347 3,587 -1,240 -41
McDowell 47,712 49,097 1,385 2.9 4,866 7,095 -2,229 3,614
Mecklenburg 1,329,914 1,540,320 210,406 15.8 175,315 117,965 57,350 153,056
Mitchell 14,805 14,583 -222 -1.5 1,394 2,381 -987 765
Montgomery 28,006 28,393 387 1.4 3,314 3,852 -538 925
Moore 120,258 137,848 17,590 14.6 15,337 17,370 -2,033 19,623
Nash 99,926 100,977 1,051 1.1 11,385 14,601 -3,216 4,267
New Hanover 267,340 300,389 33,049 12.4 27,114 31,026 -3,912 36,961
Northampton 17,124 14,310 -2,814 -16.4 1,558 2,376 -818 -1,996
Onslow 231,558 253,774 22,216 9.6 48,548 17,161 31,387 -9,171
Orange 162,267 177,101 14,834 9.1 13,371 15,031 -1,660 16,494
Pamlico 13,392 13,559 167 1.2 914 2,422 -1,508 1,675
Pasquotank 39,729 39,727 -2 -0.0 4,908 4,881 27 -29
Pender 72,153 80,591 8,438 11.7 8,324 9,260 -936 9,374
Perquimans 14,826 16,012 1,186 8.0 1,349 2,524 -1,175 2,361
Person 41,560 42,498 938 2.3 4,526 5,984 -1,458 2,396
Pitt 205,556 228,596 23,040 11.2 27,106 20,218 6,888 16,152
Polk 23,544 25,224 1,680 7.1 1,654 4,039 -2,385 4,065
Randolph 152,412 160,215 7,803 5.1 18,437 20,526 -2,089 9,892
Richmond 43,921 43,057 -864 -2.0 5,272 6,168 -896 32
Robeson 129,627 128,698 -929 -0.7 16,461 16,524 -63 -866
Rockingham 91,586 91,587 1 0.0 8,995 13,706 -4,711 4,712
Rowan 148,482 155,315 6,833 4.6 17,335 20,791 -3,456 10,289
Rutherford 72,706 76,657 3,951 5.4 7,081 11,389 -4,308 8,259
Sampson 64,058 64,108 50 0.1 9,234 8,270 964 -914
Scotland 35,389 35,225 -164 -0.5 4,432 4,811 -379 215
Stanly 67,759 71,024 3,265 4.8 7,290 9,996 -2,706 5,971
Stokes 46,804 46,875 71 0.2 3,918 7,583 -3,665 3,736
Surry 74,383 75,551 1,168 1.6 8,475 10,837 -2,362 3,530
Swain 14,838 15,309 471 3.2 1,750 2,179 -429 900
Transylvania 38,352 41,331 2,979 7.8 3,139 6,474 -3,335 6,314
Tyrrell 3,701 3,655 -46 -1.2 430 505 -75 29
Union 286,899 338,092 51,193 17.8 36,080 29,449 6,631 44,562
Vance 45,431 45,466 35 0.1 5,772 6,088 -316 351
Wake 1,305,154 1,517,529 212,375 16.3 162,432 115,592 46,840 165,535
Warren 17,972 16,289 -1,683 -9.4 1,455 2,786 -1,331 -352
Washington 11,194 10,412 -782 -7.0 1,251 1,782 -531 -251
Watauga 63,224 70,705 7,481 11.8 4,898 5,704 -806 8,287
Wayne 130,737 135,727 4,990 3.8 17,013 15,589 1,424 3,566
Wilkes 72,721 75,477 2,756 3.8 7,531 11,090 -3,559 6,315
Wilson 89,175 94,638 5,463 6.1 10,501 12,225 -1,724 7,187
Yadkin 38,070 38,076 6 0.0 4,030 5,533 -1,503 1,509
Yancey 21,381 23,921 2,540 11.9 2,229 3,203 -974 3,514
State 11,677,603 12,821,708 1,144,105 9.8 1,404,793 1,382,911 21,882 1,122,223
Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2019 and Population Projections, Vintage 2020

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Last updated February 22, 2021